AGRICULTURAL GROWTH STABILITY FOR EMPLOYMENT GENERATION AND FOOD SECURITY IN NIGERIA: ASSESSING THE ROLE OF INVESTMENT
Publication Type: Journal Article
Publication Year: 2026
Author(s): Olaide R. Akande
Journal Name: (IJAEMD)
ABSTRACT
Stable agricultural growth is crucial for employment generation and food security in developing countries. Motivated by the lag in agriculture’s contribution to food security and employment generation in Nigeria, the study examined the role of investment factors in the stability of Nigeria’s agricultural growth using the Generalized Auto-regressive Conditional Heteroscedastic (GARCH) regression model. Findings revealed that the equilibrium path of growth in Nigeria’s agriculture is influenced positively and significantly by its own value in the immediate past period (𝛽 = 0.89;𝑝 ≤ 0.01) and aggregate volume of credit obtained from commercial banks (𝛽 = 0.3; 𝑝 ≤ 0.01). Conversely, foreign direct investment in agriculture (𝛽 = −0.04; 𝑝 ≤ 0.01 and federal recurrent spending (𝛽 = −0.2;𝑝 ≤ 0.01) had significant negative influence on the path of growth. More importantly, in spite of the significant damping influence of commercial banks’ credit to agriculture (𝛽= -0.10; 𝑝 ≤ 0.01), persistent oscillation characterized the variance of agricultural growth. Also, asymmetric volatility characterized the variance of agricultural growth, with good news exerting greater influence on agricultural output volatility than bad news. The study recommends a drastic investment policy that will not only promote agricultural FDI inflow and private investment but also ensure more effective public funding of agriculture. A more effective monetary policy that will make the banking sector more efficient is also needed.
Keywords: Agricultural growth stability, investment, GARCH, Persistent volatility, Commercial Bank Credit, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)